Will the Strait of Hormuz Be Completely Open by May 31st, 2026?

Overview

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to most international shipping.

Settlement criteria

This market resolves based on whether the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to unrestricted international commercial shipping by 23:59 UTC on May 31, 2026. Resolves YES if, by the resolution deadline, ALL of the following conditions are met: Commercial vessels of any flag state can transit the Strait of Hormuz without requiring prior approval, escort, toll payment, or coordination with Iran or any other party beyond standard maritime navigation protocols. No active military threats, IRGC warnings, or blockade declarations are in effect against transiting vessels. At least two major maritime shipping or insurance sources (e.g., Lloyd's, IMO, Windward, Kpler, or equivalent) confirm that shipping traffic has returned to substantially normal, pre-crisis levels (at least 80% of average daily vessel transits recorded in January 2026). Resolves NO if any of the above conditions are not met by the deadline. This includes scenarios where the strait is only partially open — selective passage for certain flag states, escorted convoys, or a toll-based regime. Additional conditions: A "managed corridor" or "escorted convoy" system does not qualify as completely open. Iran granting passage to selected friendly nations does not qualify. Resolution is based on the de facto situation on the water, not political declarations or ceasefire announcements alone. If conflicting reports exist, the market administrator will defer to official IMO communications and independent ship-tracking data.