Will petrol prices drop in May?

Overview

April petrol sits at K27.15 per litre. ERB announces May pump prices around 30 A

Settlement criteria

Every month the Energy Regulation Board reviews Zambia's pump prices based on international oil costs and the Kwacha exchange rate. The May review drops around 30 April — and this month the two key inputs are pulling in opposite directions. The case for YES (price drops). The Kwacha has strengthened dramatically since the April review window — from K19.30 to below K18.80 per USD, a move of roughly 2.7%. A stronger Kwacha means cheaper fuel imports. Government's three-month suspension of excise duty and zero-rating of VAT on petrol and diesel remains in force through June, keeping the tax cushion in place. The case for NO (price holds or rises). International oil prices surged over 60% during the last review period, driven by Middle East tensions. If crude stays elevated or rises further, the Kwacha's gains may not be enough to offset the import cost. ERB could also hold prices flat to rebuild the Strategic Reserves Fund after absorbing the April shock. Resolution deadline: 23:59 CAT on 30 April 2026. YES resolution (all must apply): ERB issues its May 2026 Petroleum Pump Prices press statement. The new petrol (low octane / 91 octane) pump price per litre is strictly less than K27.15. The price takes effect at midnight on 30 April / 1 May 2026. NO resolution: New petrol pump price is equal to or greater than K27.15 per litre (unchanged or increased). Void conditions: ERB fails to issue a May 2026 pump price review by 7 May 2026. Government suspends the ERB monthly pricing framework entirely during the review window. Source: Energy Regulation Board — Pump Price Press Statement (https://www.erb.org.zm/) Slug: erb-petrol-may-2026-drops Note the framing flip from our original draft. We originally had "Will petrol prices rise above K27.15?" — but given the Kwacha's massive strengthening, the more interesting and balanced question is now "Will they drop?" That's the genuine coin-flip: strong Kwacha vs elevated crude. Makes for a much more tradeable market than one where everyone piles onto NO.