Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential election?

Overview

Incumbent seeks second term on 13 August. Can he clear 50%+1 and hold power?

Settlement criteria

Resolution deadline: 23:59 CAT on 31 August 2026. (ECZ plans to declare presidential results on 17 August 2026; buffer covers runoffs, petitions, and court challenges.) YES resolution (all must apply): ECZ formally declares the result of the 2026 presidential election. Hakainde Hichilema is named the winner — either by securing more than 50% of the valid vote in the first round, or by winning the runoff if one is triggered. No court order reverses the declaration before 23:59 CAT on 31 August 2026. NO resolution: Any candidate other than Hakainde Hichilema is declared winner by ECZ, including via runoff. Hichilema withdraws, is disqualified, or becomes ineligible before the election and is not on the final ballot. Void conditions: The election is postponed beyond 30 November 2026. The Constitutional Court voids the presidential poll without a declared winner or scheduled runoff by 30 November 2026. Hichilema dies before the election (edge case, but spelled out to remove ambiguity). Source: Electoral Commission of Zambia — official presidential results declaration (https://www.elections.org.zm/)